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Nfl Situation Spotlight - #97: Rush Offense Rating (rof) Mis-matches

Here is a situation that will probably be appreciated by those 'purists' who believe that the effectiveness of a teams rushing game is the biggest factor in deciding who wins and ultimately, who covers the spread. It concerns teams with a superior Rush Offense Rating (ROF) compared with their current opponent and it has produced a record of 135-52 ATS since 1994, after adding a number of other key conditions.

Before I go any further, I should mention that a detailed description of how I calculate team passing and rushing ratings can be found on my home page (http://www.armchairanalysis.com) as part of an article titled '13 Killer NFL Stats: A baker's dozen of useful stats for spread handicapping'. In addition, some of the 'trend spotlight' articles posted on my site also provide more examples of these key ratings and their various usages.

Very briefly, a teams ROF is calculated by taking a teams average yards-per-rush on offense and adjusting this figure for the quality of rush defenses this team has faced season-to-date.

An ROF above 0 indicates a team that is stronger than average in this department while an ROF below 0 signifies the opposite.

In the case of Situation #97, we will be looking at teams with an ROF that is at least +0.50 points higher than their opponents rating.

When it comes to ROF, a 1/2 point is significant and will usually mean a difference of 10-12 positions in the league rankings for this statistic.

On their own, teams that have a much higher ROF are not incredibly profitable, but, when they happen to be playing a team that did well in terms of straight-up wins in the previous season, we have a valuable handicapping tool at our disposal.

Since 1994, teams with an ROF at least 0.50 points higher than their current opponent are an incredible 313-218 ATS (58.9%) between Week 4 and 17 of the regular season, when this opponent also happened to be a playoff team in the past season. Over the past 14 years, this trend has produced a profit of $7320 when wagering $110.00 to win back $100.00 on each game.

It's one of the more powerful trends I have come across over the past few years and it has turned a profit in every single season since 1994 except for one (2006) and was a solid 32-21 ATS last year.

So, what is the real deal with this situation and why is it so successful? The answer to this question can be found by looking closer at some of the stats behind it.

Out of the 531 teams involved in this situation over the past 14 years, 63.0% of these have had a winning record, or a record of at least .500, yet, the average spread has been +0.7 points and this team has also been an underdog 54.4% of the time.

Another clue lies with the fact that this situation is hottest in Week 4 and 5 (the first 2 weeks of the season it is active). Teams with a far superior ROF facing a playoff team from last year are 59-27 ATS before Week 6.

What these stats reveal is that, there is an inherent bias that bettors have towards teams that were in the playoffs in the previous year, especially when betting on games early in the following season.

This bias towards teams that made it into the last post-season can effectively create a situation where there is 'line-value' in betting against them, especially in the case where they are currently facing a team that is rushing the ball far more effectively.

Recent playoff teams are actually a lousy wager all the way up to Week 16 of the following year and have a historical record of 1077-1184 ATS since 1994 for a winning percentage of only 47.6%.

Now, while this trend is extremely profitable using only the 2 Primary conditions listed above, there is a 3rd and final condition I like to add in order to greatly reduce the number of potential wagers involved while maintaining a similar level of profit--essentially increasing our ROI (return on investment).

This last condition specifies that, in addition to a significant edge with regards to ROF over their current opponent, the team in question must also have an ROF that is at least 0.50 points higher than their ROF from the past season..

Teams in this situation have a habit of being undervalued due to the same factors that make recent playoff teams a questionable bet--novice and intermediate bettors just can't help themselves from making wagers based on what a team did last year or even the year before and this will always affect the line.

By only including teams that have seen a significant improvement in their rushing game from the past season, the record for this trend improves to 152-79 ATS (65.8%) since 1994.

All the details for this trend are listed below, including one final 'tightener' that improves it's results even further.

Situational Trend #97 Summary

Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)

1) Rush Offense Rating (ROF) - Opponent ROF > 0.5.

2) Current ROF - Last Seasons ROF > 0.5.

3) Current Opponent was a Playoff team Last Season.

Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)

1) Include only games between Week 4 and 17.

2) Exclude Passing Attempts For (PAF)

Situation Stats

ASMR: -0.1

Home%: 50.5

Dog%: 57.7

TDIS%: 96.9

WT%: 63.3

SPR: +1.2

Top Teams: PHI(17); MIN(16); ATL(13); OAK(12)

Situation Records

Overall (Since '94): 135-52 ATS

2007 Season: 13-3 ATS

2006 Season: 11-6 ATS

2005 Season: 9-1 ATS

2004 Season: 11-4 ATS

Last 3 Results. Pick in Brackets.

2007 WK15--MIN 20 CHI 13 (MIN -10) L

2007 WK14--CLE 24 NYJ 18 (CLE -3.5) W

2007 WK13--TB 27 NO 23 (TB +3) W

About the Author

Dennis Arthur, a self-professed statistics junkie and American Football fanatic, has been providing innovative NFL analysis based against the Vegas point spread since 1999. For more wagering orientated articles like this one along with specialized team ratings and winning selections versus the spread, visit his site at http://www.armchairanalysis.com.

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